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Frýdek-Místek U19 vs České Budějovice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
4/27/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 24Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frýdek-Místek U1941%
×Draw24%
České Budějovice U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.61
České Budějovice U19
1.45

Frýdek-Místek U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.07
České Budějovice U19
1.77

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.13
České Budějovice U19
2.15

finishing

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par
České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek U19 or draw
65%
Frýdek-Místek U19 or České Budějovice U19
76%
Draw or České Budějovice U19
59%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
21%
České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
80%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
48%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
22%
České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
77%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
42%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
55%
České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
41%
level
24%
České Budějovice U19 scores more
35%

Frýdek-Místek U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdek-Místek U19 vs České Budějovice U19

Frýdek-Místek U19 and České Budějovice U19 drew 0-0 in 1. Liga U19 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.