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Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
O. Drobek 37'
J. Pira 10'
8/12/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 2Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frýdek-Místek U1934%
×Draw25%
Baník Ostrava U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.33
Baník Ostrava U19
1.47

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.07
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.13
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek U19 or draw
59%
Frýdek-Místek U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
75%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
66%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
15%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
74%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
38%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
15%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
77%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
43%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
34%
level
25%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
41%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
J. Pira
37'
O. Drobek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Frýdek-Místek U19 0–2 Baník Ostrava U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Frýdek-Místek U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on August 12, 2023.

Goals: J. Pira (10'), O. Drobek (37').

The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.