Frosinone 2–0 Spal: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spal

L. Mazzitelli 87'

G. Caso 47'

10/8/2022

Serie B · Round 8Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Frosinone48%

×Draw27%

Spal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchSpal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.93

Frosinone

1.40

Spal

0.93

Frosinone creates 51% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 59 away

1.53

creates per match

0.90

0.95

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Frosinone

1.53

Spal

0.90

allows per match

Frosinone

0.95

Spal

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Spal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

75%

Frosinone or Spal

73%

Draw or Spal

52%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

23%

Spal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

75%

Frosinone 2+ goals

41%

Frosinone 3+ goals

17%

Spal 1+ goals

61%

Spal 2+ goals

24%

Spal 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

66%

Spal (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 116 matches

Spal away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.53 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spal attack 0.90 + Frosinone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Frosinone scores more

48%

level

27%

Spal scores more

25%

Frosinone at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Caso

Frosinone · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

Przemysław Szymiński

43'

Simone Rabbi

47'

G. Caso↳ L. Garritano

58'

D. Thiam← E. Alfonso

58'

L. Dickmann← A. Fiordaliso

69'

Ben Lhassine Kone

70'

R. Insigne← R. Ciervo

70'

K. Lulić← G. Caso

72'

G. Moncini← M. Finotto

72'

F. Proia← L. Valzania

74'

Matteo Cotali

80'

M. Rohdén← B. Kone

80'

S. Mulattieri← L. Moro

81'

84'

87'

88'

90'

G. Frabotta← L. Garritano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneSpal

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots10

5Corners7

13Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target2

7Off Target4

2Blocked4

10Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

358Total Passes428

288Accurate Passes347

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2