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Frosinone vs Parma — Serie A 2026

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Parma
Parma
D. Ciofani 90+13' (pen)
L. Valzania 45+2'
A. Pinamonti 12'
F. Ceravolo 58' (pen)
A. Barillà 18'
4/3/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 30Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Frosinone42%
×Draw26%
Parma32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.39
Parma
1.17

Frosinone creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 29 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.16
Parma
0.84

allows per match

Frosinone
1.50
Parma
1.61

finishing

Frosinone+0.11scores more
Parma-0.12scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Parma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
68%
Frosinone or Parma
74%
Draw or Parma
58%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
20%
Parma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
75%
Frosinone 2+ goals
40%
Frosinone 3+ goals
16%
Parma 1+ goals
69%
Parma 2+ goals
33%
Parma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
57%
Parma (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

Parma away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.61 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.16 + Parma defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Parma attack 0.84 + Frosinone defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frosinone scores more
42%
level
26%
Parma scores more
32%

Frosinone at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89
A. PinamontiFrosinoneFrosinone · F
8.5

Match Events

12'
Francisco Sierralta
12'
A. Pinamonti↳ L. Valzania
18'
A. Barillà↳ R. Gagliolo
25'
Nicolò Brighenti
27'
Luca Valzania
41'
Marcello Gazzola
44'
Marco Capuano
45+2'
L. Valzania↳ A. Pinamonti
52'
F. Ceravolo← N. Schiappacase
58'
F. CeravoloPenalty
59'
Fabio Ceravolo
66'
M. Gobbi← M. Scozzarella
72'
R. Maiello← P. Sammarco
79'
A. Bastoni← M. Gazzola
80'
R. Chibsah← L. Valzania
84'
D. Ciofani← M. Trotta
90'
Massimo Gobbi
90+13'
D. CiofaniPenalty

Possession

61%Frosinone

Shots

21Frosinone

Pass accuracy

54%Frosinone

Statistics

FrosinoneParma
Overview
61%Possession39%
21Total Shots12
3Corners3
15Fouls19
Shots
21Total Shots12
4On Target4
12Off Target7
5Blocked1
13Inside Box7
8Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
454Total Passes302
378Accurate Passes212
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls19
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Frosinone vs Parma

Frosinone beat Parma 3-2 in Serie A on April 3, 2019.

Goals: A. Pinamonti (12'), A. Barillà (18'), L. Valzania (45+2'), F. Ceravolo (58' pen), D. Ciofani (90+13' pen).

Frosinone controlled possession (61%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.