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Frosinone vs Livorno — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Livorno
Livorno
10/21/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 8Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Frosinone53%
×Draw25%
Livorno22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.56
Livorno
0.90

Frosinone creates 73% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 37 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.54
Livorno
0.84

allows per match

Frosinone
0.95
Livorno
1.57

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par
Livorno+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Livorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
78%
Frosinone or Livorno
75%
Draw or Livorno
47%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
28%
Livorno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
79%
Frosinone 2+ goals
46%
Frosinone 3+ goals
21%
Livorno 1+ goals
59%
Livorno 2+ goals
23%
Livorno 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
71%
Livorno (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.95 · 117 matches

Livorno away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.54 + Livorno defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Livorno attack 0.84 + Frosinone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Frosinone scores more
53%
level
25%
Livorno scores more
22%

Frosinone at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Frosinone 1–0 Livorno

Frosinone beat Livorno 1-0 in Serie B on October 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.