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Frosinone vs Chievo — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chievo
Chievo
11/10/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 12Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Frosinone45%
×Draw27%
Chievo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.36
Chievo
1.00

Frosinone creates 36% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 39 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.54
Chievo
1.05

allows per match

Frosinone
0.95
Chievo
1.18

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par
Chievo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Chievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
72%
Frosinone or Chievo
73%
Draw or Chievo
55%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
21%
Chievo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
74%
Frosinone 2+ goals
39%
Frosinone 3+ goals
16%
Chievo 1+ goals
63%
Chievo 2+ goals
26%
Chievo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
62%
Chievo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.95 · 117 matches

Chievo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.54 + Chievo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chievo attack 1.05 + Frosinone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Frosinone scores more
45%
level
27%
Chievo scores more
28%

Frosinone at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Frosinone 2–0 Chievo

Frosinone beat Chievo 2-0 in Serie B on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.