Frosinone 2–0 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Benevento

A. Vogliacco 56' (OG)

M. Ricci 15' (pen)

3/19/2022

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Frosinone41%

×Draw28%

Benevento31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.09

Frosinone

1.29

Benevento

1.09

Frosinone creates 18% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 79 away

1.53

creates per match

1.24

0.95

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Frosinone

1.53

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Frosinone

0.95

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

69%

Frosinone or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

59%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

18%

Benevento wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

72%

Frosinone 2+ goals

37%

Frosinone 3+ goals

14%

Benevento 1+ goals

66%

Benevento 2+ goals

30%

Benevento 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

57%

Benevento (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 116 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.53 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Benevento attack 1.24 + Frosinone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frosinone scores more

41%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

31%

Frosinone at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

M. Ricci

Frosinone · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

Alberto Paleari

15'

M. RicciPenalty

31'

Kamil Glik

56'

A. VogliaccoOwn goal

60'

G. Lapadula← R. Improta

60'

S. Elia← R. Insigne

71'

Luigi Canotto

78'

A. Novakovich← C. Ciano

79'

M. Rohdén← K. Lulić

80'

E. Brignola← G. Moncini

85'

A. Tribuzzi← L. Canotto

85'

E. Masciangelo← D. Foulon

90+1'

Przemysław Szymiński

90'

N. Brighenti← F. Zampano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneBenevento

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots8

9Corners3

21Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target2

4Off Target4

5Blocked2

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

314Total Passes494

219Accurate Passes386

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3