Frosinone 2–0 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Avellino

R. Marchizza 28'

I. Koutsoupias 4'

8/24/2025

Serie B · Round 1Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Frosinone60%

×Draw23%

Avellino17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.79

Frosinone

1.73

Avellino

0.79

Frosinone creates 119% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

0.44

1.14

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Frosinone

1.94

Avellino

0.44

allows per match

Frosinone

1.14

Avellino

1.51

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.52scores more

Avellino+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

83%

Frosinone or Avellino

77%

Draw or Avellino

40%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

34%

Avellino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

82%

Frosinone 2+ goals

52%

Frosinone 3+ goals

25%

Avellino 1+ goals

55%

Avellino 2+ goals

19%

Avellino 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

78%

Avellino (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.51 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.94 + Avellino defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Avellino attack 0.44 + Frosinone defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Frosinone scores more

60%

level

23%

Avellino scores more

17%

Frosinone at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Marchizza

Frosinone · D

8.0

Match Events

4'

I. Koutsoupias↳ F. Ghedjemis

28'

R. Marchizza↳ G. Calo

35'

Michele Besaggio

39'

Ilario Monterisi

48'

Kevin Barcella

55'

F. Gelli← K. Barcella

60'

A. Milani← C. Manzi

60'

V. Crespi← R. Insigne

62'

Gabriele Calvani

66'

M. Zilli← F. Ghedjemis

66'

G. Bracaglia← A. Raimondo

70'

J. Kumi← M. Besaggio

71'

L. D'Andrea← R. Russo

71'

G. Panico← F. Lescano

72'

Justin Kumi

75'

M. Cichella← I. Koutsoupias

75'

E. Masciangelo← G. Kvernadze

88'

Edoardo Masciangelo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneAvellino

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots13

6Corners1

19Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target3

4Off Target6

7Blocked4

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

294Total Passes472

213Accurate Passes409

72%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Serie B: Frosinone 2–0 Avellino

Frosinone beat Avellino 2-0 in Serie B on August 24, 2025.

Goals: I. Koutsoupias (4'), R. Marchizza (28').

Avellino controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 2–0 Avellino