Frosinone 2–4 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.54

Frosinone

1.20

AC Milan

1.54

AC Milan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

1.16

creates per match

1.57

1.50

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Frosinone

1.16

AC Milan

1.57

allows per match

Frosinone

1.50

AC Milan

1.24

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.11scores more

AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

55%

Frosinone or AC Milan

75%

Draw or AC Milan

70%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

12%

AC Milan wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

70%

Frosinone 2+ goals

34%

Frosinone 3+ goals

12%

AC Milan 1+ goals

79%

AC Milan 2+ goals

45%

AC Milan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

40%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.16 + AC Milan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Frosinone defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Frosinone scores more

30%

level

25%

AC Milan scores more

45%

AC Milan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

G. Bonaventura

AC Milan · M

8.8

Match Events

19'

D. Ciofani↳ F. Dionisi

45'

49'

50'

55'

55'

C. Bacca↳ G. Bonaventura

60'

Alessio Romagnoli

61'

Federico Dionisi

63'

L. Paganini← A. Tonev

68'

Daniel Pavlović

72'

R. Chibsah← M. Gori

76'

Gianluigi Donnarumma

77'

Alex↳ M. Niang

80'

Luiz Adriano← M. Niang

83'

F. Dionisi↳ D. Pavlovic

90'

Daniel Ciofani

90'

S. Longo← M. Ciofani

90'

A. Poli← C. Bacca

90+3'

G. Bonaventura↳ A. Poli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneAC

Overview

29%Possession71%

15Total Shots22

2Corners11

0Fouls0

Shots

15Total Shots22

6On Target10

6Off Target6

3Blocked6

6Inside Box13

9Outside Box9

Passing

29%Possession71%

247Total Passes602

158Accurate Passes496

64%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

0Fouls0

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2