Frosinone U20 0–3 Lazio U20: Result & Stats

Frosinone U20

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lazio U20

4/26/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 35Stadio Comunale di Ferentino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Frosinone U2034%

×Draw26%

Lazio U2041%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frosinone U20Expected goals in this matchLazio U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.45

Frosinone U20

1.29

Lazio U20

1.45

Lazio U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.42

creates per match

0.89

2.00

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Frosinone U20

1.42

Lazio U20

0.89

allows per match

Frosinone U20

2.00

Lazio U20

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone U20+0.00on par

Lazio U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone U20 ↓

Lazio U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Frosinone U20 or draw

59%

Frosinone U20 or Lazio U20

74%

Draw or Lazio U20

66%

Winning margin

Frosinone U20 wins by 2+

15%

Lazio U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Frosinone U20 1+ goals

72%

Frosinone U20 2+ goals

37%

Frosinone U20 3+ goals

14%

Lazio U20 1+ goals

77%

Lazio U20 2+ goals

42%

Lazio U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Frosinone U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Lazio U20 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Lazio U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone U20 attack 1.42 + Lazio U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lazio U20 attack 0.89 + Frosinone U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frosinone U20 scores more

34%

level

26%

Lazio U20 scores more

41%

Lazio U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lazio U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff