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Frosinone U19 vs Pescara U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Frosinone U19
Frosinone U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pescara U19
Pescara U19
12/7/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 11Stadio Comunale di Ferentino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Frosinone U1950%
×Draw22%
Pescara U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone U19
1.96
Pescara U19
1.43

Frosinone U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 72 away

creates per match

Frosinone U19
2.20
Pescara U19
1.75

allows per match

Frosinone U19
1.10
Pescara U19
1.71

finishing

Frosinone U19+0.00on par
Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frosinone U19 or draw
72%
Frosinone U19 or Pescara U19
78%
Draw or Pescara U19
50%

Winning margin

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+
28%
Pescara U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Frosinone U19 1+ goals
86%
Frosinone U19 2+ goals
58%
Frosinone U19 3+ goals
31%
Pescara U19 1+ goals
76%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
42%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone U19 attack 2.20 + Pescara U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pescara U19 attack 1.75 + Frosinone U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Frosinone U19 scores more
50%
level
22%
Pescara U19 scores more
28%

Frosinone U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Frosinone U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Frosinone U19 3–0 Pescara U19

Frosinone U19 beat Pescara U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Ferentino in Ferentino.