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Frosinone U19 vs Fiorentina U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Frosinone U19
Frosinone U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fiorentina U19
Fiorentina U19
10/8/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7Stadio Comunale di Ferentino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frosinone U1939%
×Draw25%
Fiorentina U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone U19
1.44
Fiorentina U19
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

creates per match

Frosinone U19
1.32
Fiorentina U19
1.42

allows per match

Frosinone U19
1.35
Fiorentina U19
1.55

finishing

Frosinone U19+0.00on par
Fiorentina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone U19 ↓

Fiorentina U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Frosinone U19 or draw
64%
Frosinone U19 or Fiorentina U19
75%
Draw or Fiorentina U19
61%

Winning margin

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+
18%
Fiorentina U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Frosinone U19 1+ goals
76%
Frosinone U19 2+ goals
42%
Frosinone U19 3+ goals
18%
Fiorentina U19 1+ goals
75%
Fiorentina U19 2+ goals
40%
Fiorentina U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Fiorentina U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone U19 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

Fiorentina U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.55 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone U19 attack 1.32 + Fiorentina U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fiorentina U19 attack 1.42 + Frosinone U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Frosinone U19 scores more
39%
level
25%
Fiorentina U19 scores more
36%

Frosinone U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Frosinone U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frosinone U19 vs Fiorentina U19

Frosinone U19 beat Fiorentina U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Ferentino in Ferentino.