Frosinone U19 2–3 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Frosinone U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Cesena U19

A. Selvini 68'

T. Lepri 9' (OG)

A. Dénes 88'

V. Coveri 23', 7'

4/2/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 25Stadio Comunale di Ferentino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Frosinone U1961%

×Draw20%

Cesena U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frosinone U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.21

Frosinone U19

2.28

Cesena U19

1.21

Frosinone U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

1.06

1.35

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Frosinone U19

1.32

Cesena U19

1.06

allows per match

Frosinone U19

1.35

Cesena U19

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Frosinone U19 or draw

81%

Frosinone U19 or Cesena U19

80%

Draw or Cesena U19

39%

Winning margin

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+

39%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Frosinone U19 1+ goals

90%

Frosinone U19 2+ goals

66%

Frosinone U19 3+ goals

39%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

70%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

34%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone U19 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone U19 attack 1.32 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.28

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Frosinone U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Frosinone U19 scores more

61%

level

20%

Cesena U19 scores more

19%

Frosinone U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Frosinone U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

V. Coveri

9'

S. Cangianiello

9'

T. LepriOwn goal

22'

23'

V. Coveri

35'

A. Peres

42'

L. Gozzo

60'

D. Voncina← F. Stefanelli

60'

M. Bruno← N. Mulattieri

64'

A. Carlini

64'

M. Rosati← D. Voncina

64'

68'

69'

70'

70'

77'

F. Ferretti← L. Polli

77'

A. Dénes← S. Elefante

81'

R. Campedelli← F. Lilli

88'

A. Dénes

90'

S. Milli← V. Coveri

Frosinone

Cesena

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: G. Gorgone

60'▲D. Voncina←▼F. Stefanelli

60'▲M. Bruno←▼N. Mulattieri

64'▲M. Rosati←▼D. Voncina

64'▲S. Jirillo←▼L. Gozzo

Frosinone U19 substitutes

VoncinaBrunoRosatiJirillo

Manager: G. Ceccarelli

77'▲F. Ferretti←▼L. Polli

77'▲A. Dénes←▼S. Elefante

81'▲R. Campedelli←▼F. Lilli

90'▲S. Milli←▼V. Coveri

Cesena U19 substitutes

FerrettiDénesCampedelliMilli