Frome Town 4–0 Bideford: Result & Stats

Frome Town

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bideford

2/28/2026

League #56

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Frome Town79%

×Draw12%

Bideford9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frome TownExpected goals in this matchBideford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

0.98

Frome Town

3.16

Bideford

0.98

Frome Town creates 222% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

2.31

creates per match

1.33

0.63

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Frome Town

2.31

Bideford

1.33

allows per match

Frome Town

0.63

Bideford

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frome Town+0.00on par

Bideford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frome Town ↓

Bideford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Frome Town or draw

91%

Frome Town or Bideford

88%

Draw or Bideford

21%

Winning margin

Frome Town wins by 2+

60%

Bideford wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Frome Town 1+ goals

96%

Frome Town 2+ goals

82%

Frome Town 3+ goals

59%

Bideford 1+ goals

62%

Bideford 2+ goals

26%

Bideford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Frome Town (draw refunded)

90%

Bideford (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frome Town at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Bideford away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frome Town attack 2.31 + Bideford defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.16

Bideford attack 1.33 + Frome Town defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Frome Town scores more

79%

level

12%

Bideford scores more

9%

Frome Town at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff