Frohnleiten 1–1 UFC Fehring: Result & Stats

Frohnleiten

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UFC Fehring

11/2/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 14Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten27%

×Draw22%

UFC Fehring51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrohnleitenExpected goals in this matchUFC Fehring

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.99

Frohnleiten

1.39

UFC Fehring

1.99

UFC Fehring creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

0.73

creates per match

1.50

2.47

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Frohnleiten

0.73

UFC Fehring

1.50

allows per match

Frohnleiten

2.47

UFC Fehring

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par

UFC Fehring+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

UFC Fehring →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw

49%

Frohnleiten or UFC Fehring

78%

Draw or UFC Fehring

73%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+

12%

UFC Fehring wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals

75%

Frohnleiten 2+ goals

40%

Frohnleiten 3+ goals

16%

UFC Fehring 1+ goals

86%

UFC Fehring 2+ goals

59%

UFC Fehring 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)

34%

UFC Fehring (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

UFC Fehring away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + UFC Fehring defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.39

UFC Fehring attack 1.50 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frohnleiten scores more

27%

level

22%

UFC Fehring scores more

51%

UFC Fehring at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UFC Fehring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff