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Frohnleiten vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
FT
2 – 3
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
8/2/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 1Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten28%
×Draw22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frohnleiten
1.42
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.98

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Frohnleiten
0.73
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Frohnleiten
2.47
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw
50%
Frohnleiten or TuS Heiligenkreuz
78%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
72%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+
12%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals
76%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
41%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
17%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
86%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
59%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
35%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Frohnleiten scores more
28%
level
22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
50%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Frohnleiten 2–3 TuS Heiligenkreuz

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Frohnleiten 3-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Franz Feldgrill-Stadion in Frohnleiten.