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Frohnleiten vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
5/9/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 26Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten22%
×Draw21%
Lafnitz II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frohnleiten
1.27
Lafnitz II
2.16

Lafnitz II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Frohnleiten
0.73
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Frohnleiten
2.47
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw
43%
Frohnleiten or Lafnitz II
79%
Draw or Lafnitz II
78%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+
9%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals
72%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
36%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
14%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
88%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
63%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
28%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Frohnleiten scores more
22%
level
21%
Lafnitz II scores more
57%

Lafnitz II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Frohnleiten 1–4 Lafnitz II

Lafnitz II beat Frohnleiten 4-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Franz Feldgrill-Stadion in Frohnleiten.