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Frohnleiten vs Kindberg-Mürzhofen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
FT
1 – 4
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
10/5/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 10Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten33%
×Draw21%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frohnleiten
1.76
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.10

Kindberg-Mürzhofen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Frohnleiten
0.73
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
1.73

allows per match

Frohnleiten
2.47
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.80

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par
Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

Kindberg-Mürzhofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw
54%
Frohnleiten or Kindberg-Mürzhofen
79%
Draw or Kindberg-Mürzhofen
67%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+
16%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals
83%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
52%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
26%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals
88%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals
62%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
42%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 1.73 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frohnleiten scores more
33%
level
21%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more
46%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kindberg-Mürzhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frohnleiten vs Kindberg-Mürzhofen

Kindberg-Mürzhofen beat Frohnleiten 4-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Franz Feldgrill-Stadion in Frohnleiten.