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Friska Viljor vs Boden City — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Friska Viljor
Friska Viljor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Boden City
Boden City
10/11/2025Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Relegation Round - 12Skyttis IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Friska Viljor60%
×Draw19%
Boden City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friska Viljor
2.41
Boden City
1.35

Friska Viljor creates 79% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 12 away

creates per match

Friska Viljor
2.74
Boden City
1.33

allows per match

Friska Viljor
1.38
Boden City
2.08

finishing

Friska Viljor+0.00on par
Boden City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friska Viljor ↓

Boden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Friska Viljor or draw
79%
Friska Viljor or Boden City
81%
Draw or Boden City
40%

Winning margin

Friska Viljor wins by 2+
39%
Boden City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Friska Viljor 1+ goals
91%
Friska Viljor 2+ goals
69%
Friska Viljor 3+ goals
43%
Boden City 1+ goals
74%
Boden City 2+ goals
39%
Boden City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Friska Viljor (draw refunded)
75%
Boden City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friska Viljor at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

Boden City away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friska Viljor attack 2.74 + Boden City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.41

Boden City attack 1.33 + Friska Viljor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Friska Viljor scores more
60%
level
19%
Boden City scores more
21%

Friska Viljor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Friska Viljor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norrland: Friska Viljor 2–3 Boden City

Boden City beat Friska Viljor 3-2 in Division 2 - Norrland on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Skyttis IP.