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Frigg vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Frigg
Frigg
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Skeid II
Skeid II
6/9/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 10Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg74%
×Draw13%
Skeid II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
3.74
Skeid II
1.61

Frigg creates 132% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Skeid II
1.85

allows per match

Frigg
1.38
Skeid II
3.62

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
87%
Frigg or Skeid II
87%
Draw or Skeid II
26%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
56%
Skeid II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
97%
Frigg 2+ goals
88%
Frigg 3+ goals
70%
Skeid II 1+ goals
80%
Skeid II 2+ goals
48%
Skeid II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
85%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.85, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Skeid II defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 3.74

Skeid II attack 1.85 + Frigg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Frigg scores more
74%
level
13%
Skeid II scores more
13%

Frigg at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frigg vs Skeid II

Frigg beat Skeid II 6-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.