Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Frigg vs Junkeren — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Frigg
Frigg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Junkeren
Junkeren
S. Barane 77', 58'
S. Gray 16'
6/15/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 10Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg45%
×Draw19%
Junkeren36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
2.54
Junkeren
2.29

Frigg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Junkeren
2.92

allows per match

Frigg
1.67
Junkeren
1.23

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Junkeren+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Junkeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
64%
Frigg or Junkeren
81%
Draw or Junkeren
55%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
27%
Junkeren wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
92%
Frigg 2+ goals
72%
Frigg 3+ goals
46%
Junkeren 1+ goals
90%
Junkeren 2+ goals
66%
Junkeren 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
55%
Junkeren (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

Junkeren away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Junkeren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 2.54

Junkeren attack 2.92 + Frigg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Frigg scores more
45%
level
19%
Junkeren scores more
36%

Frigg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
S. Gray
45+3'
I. Lekang
51'
A. A. Engesvik
51'
A. A. Engesvik
58'
S. Barane
77'
S. Barane
Frigg
Junkeren
M. Aadland
Manager: M. Aadland
J. Kildal
Manager: J. Kildal

Match Recap: Frigg vs Junkeren

Frigg beat Junkeren 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 15, 2025.

Goals: S. Gray (16'), S. Barane (58', 77').

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.