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Frigg vs Harstad — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Frigg
Frigg
FT
5 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Harstad
Harstad
U. Ferrer 90' (pen), 62', 39', 13'
P. Nomell 64'
T. Gjerde 46'
K. W. Iversen 35'
N. Johnsen 24', 11'
9/7/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 19Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg53%
×Draw18%
Harstad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
2.92
Harstad
2.15

Frigg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Harstad
2.62

allows per match

Frigg
1.67
Harstad
2.00

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Harstad+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Harstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
71%
Frigg or Harstad
82%
Draw or Harstad
47%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
35%
Harstad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
94%
Frigg 2+ goals
78%
Frigg 3+ goals
55%
Harstad 1+ goals
88%
Harstad 2+ goals
63%
Harstad 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
65%
Harstad (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

Harstad away — creates 2.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Harstad defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Harstad attack 2.62 + Frigg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Frigg scores more
53%
level
18%
Harstad scores more
29%

Frigg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
N. Johnsen
13'
U. Ferrer
24'
N. Johnsen
35'
K. W. Iversen
39'
U. Ferrer
46'
T. Gjerde
62'
U. Ferrer
64'
P. Nomell
90'
U. FerrerPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Frigg 5–4 Harstad

Frigg beat Harstad 5-4 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 7, 2025.

Goals: N. Johnsen (11', 24'), U. Ferrer (13', 39', 62', 90' pen), K. W. Iversen (35'), T. Gjerde (46'), P. Nomell (64').

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.