Frigg 4–1 Grorud II: Result & Stats

Frigg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Grorud II

U. Ferrer 61', 55', 1'

E. Sawaneh 8'

M. Braten 78'

10/2/2023

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 22Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Frigg64%

×Draw16%

Grorud II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FriggExpected goals in this matchGrorud II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.15

1.77

Frigg

3.15

Grorud II

1.77

Frigg creates 78% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

3.85

creates per match

1.88

1.67

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Frigg

3.85

Grorud II

1.88

allows per match

Frigg

1.67

Grorud II

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par

Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Grorud II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Frigg or draw

80%

Frigg or Grorud II

84%

Draw or Grorud II

36%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+

45%

Grorud II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals

96%

Frigg 2+ goals

81%

Frigg 3+ goals

59%

Grorud II 1+ goals

83%

Grorud II 2+ goals

53%

Grorud II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)

76%

Grorud II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 3.15

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Frigg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Frigg scores more

64%

level

16%

Grorud II scores more

20%

Frigg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

U. Ferrer

8'

E. Sawaneh

55'

U. Ferrer

61'

U. Ferrer

78'

M. Braten

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff