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Frigg vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Frigg
Frigg
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
7/6/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 14Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg73%
×Draw14%
Åssiden IF13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
3.35
Åssiden IF
1.42

Frigg creates 136% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Frigg
1.38
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
87%
Frigg or Åssiden IF
86%
Draw or Åssiden IF
27%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
54%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
96%
Frigg 2+ goals
84%
Frigg 3+ goals
63%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
76%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
41%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
85%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 3.35

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Frigg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Frigg scores more
73%
level
14%
Åssiden IF scores more
13%

Frigg at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frigg vs Åssiden IF

Frigg beat Åssiden IF 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.