Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Frigg vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Frigg
Frigg
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Alta II
Alta II
U. Ferrer 90', 86', 21', 8', 4'
P. Eriksson 88'
J. Kristensen 10'
7/5/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 13Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frigg76%
×Draw12%
Alta II12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg
3.88
Alta II
1.56

Frigg creates 149% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frigg
3.85
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Frigg
1.67
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Frigg+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Frigg or draw
88%
Frigg or Alta II
88%
Draw or Alta II
24%

Winning margin

Frigg wins by 2+
59%
Alta II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Frigg 1+ goals
98%
Frigg 2+ goals
89%
Frigg 3+ goals
72%
Alta II 1+ goals
79%
Alta II 2+ goals
46%
Alta II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Frigg (draw refunded)
87%
Alta II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg at home — creates 3.85, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg attack 3.85 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.88

Alta II attack 1.46 + Frigg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Frigg scores more
76%
level
12%
Alta II scores more
12%

Frigg at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
U. Ferrer
8'
U. Ferrer
10'
J. Kristensen
21'
U. Ferrer
86'
U. Ferrer
88'
P. Eriksson
90'
U. Ferrer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frigg 5 – 2 Alta II

Frigg beat Alta II 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 5, 2025.

Goals: U. Ferrer (4', 8', 21', 86', 90'), J. Kristensen (10'), P. Eriksson (88').

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.