Frigg Oslo FK W vs Fyllingsdalen W

Frigg Oslo FK W

Preview

12:00

Fyllingsdalen W

10/4/2026

1. Division Women · Round 20

49%

Fyllingsdalen W

model favours

30%21%49%

1–2

likely score

69%

over 2.5 goals

68%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Frigg Oslo FK W30%

×Draw21%

Fyllingsdalen W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frigg Oslo FK WExpected goals in this matchFyllingsdalen W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

2.04

Frigg Oslo FK W

1.55

Fyllingsdalen W

2.04

Fyllingsdalen W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 41 away

1.00

creates per match

1.27

2.80

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Frigg Oslo FK W

1.00

Fyllingsdalen W

1.27

allows per match

Frigg Oslo FK W

2.80

Fyllingsdalen W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frigg Oslo FK W+0.00on par

Fyllingsdalen W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg Oslo FK W ↓

Fyllingsdalen W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Frigg Oslo FK W or draw

51%

Frigg Oslo FK W or Fyllingsdalen W

79%

Draw or Fyllingsdalen W

70%

Winning margin

Frigg Oslo FK W wins by 2+

14%

Fyllingsdalen W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Frigg Oslo FK W 1+ goals

79%

Frigg Oslo FK W 2+ goals

46%

Frigg Oslo FK W 3+ goals

20%

Fyllingsdalen W 1+ goals

87%

Fyllingsdalen W 2+ goals

60%

Fyllingsdalen W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Frigg Oslo FK W (draw refunded)

38%

Fyllingsdalen W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg Oslo FK W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Fyllingsdalen W away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.10 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg Oslo FK W attack 1.00 + Fyllingsdalen W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Fyllingsdalen W attack 1.27 + Frigg Oslo FK W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frigg Oslo FK W scores more

30%

level

21%

Fyllingsdalen W scores more

49%

Fyllingsdalen W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LLLLL

W

WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff