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Friesdorf vs Pesch — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Friesdorf
Friesdorf
CANC
14:30
Pesch
Pesch
3/7/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 17Sportzentrum Friesdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Friesdorf45%
×Draw21%
Pesch34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friesdorf
2.16
Pesch
1.85

Friesdorf creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 63 away

creates per match

Friesdorf
1.91
Pesch
1.46

allows per match

Friesdorf
2.25
Pesch
2.41

finishing

Friesdorf+0.00on par
Pesch+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friesdorf ↓

Pesch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Friesdorf or draw
66%
Friesdorf or Pesch
79%
Draw or Pesch
55%

Winning margin

Friesdorf wins by 2+
26%
Pesch wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Friesdorf 1+ goals
88%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
63%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
36%
Pesch 1+ goals
84%
Pesch 2+ goals
55%
Pesch 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Friesdorf (draw refunded)
57%
Pesch (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friesdorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

Pesch away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.41 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friesdorf attack 1.91 + Pesch defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.16

Pesch attack 1.46 + Friesdorf defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Friesdorf scores more
45%
level
21%
Pesch scores more
34%

Friesdorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Friesdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friesdorf face Pesch (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Friesdorf hosting Pesch. Match starts March 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Friesdorf host Pesch at Sportzentrum Friesdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.