Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Zebau Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
CANC
00:00
Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
4/25/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 23Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf49%
×Draw20%
Zebau Bad Ischl31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.37
Zebau Bad Ischl
1.86

Friedburg / Pöndorf creates 27% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

creates per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.19
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.14

allows per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.58
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.55

finishing

Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par
Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedburg / Pöndorf ↓

Zebau Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Friedburg / Pöndorf or draw
69%
Friedburg / Pöndorf or Zebau Bad Ischl
80%
Draw or Zebau Bad Ischl
51%

Winning margin

Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
30%
Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
91%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
68%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
42%
Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
84%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
55%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
62%
Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedburg / Pöndorf at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

Zebau Bad Ischl away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 2.19 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.37

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.14 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
49%
level
20%
Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
31%

Friedburg / Pöndorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Friedburg / Pöndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Friedburg / Pöndorf host Zebau Bad Ischl

April 25, 2020: Friedburg / Pöndorf take on Zebau Bad Ischl in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Friedburg / Pöndorf host Zebau Bad Ischl at Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.