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Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
FT
2 – 2
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
9/28/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 9Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf54%
×Draw21%
Union St. Florian24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.09
Union St. Florian
1.34

Friedburg / Pöndorf creates 56% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

creates per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.19
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.58
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedburg / Pöndorf ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Friedburg / Pöndorf or draw
76%
Friedburg / Pöndorf or Union St. Florian
79%
Draw or Union St. Florian
46%

Winning margin

Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
32%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
88%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
62%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
34%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
74%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
39%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
69%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedburg / Pöndorf at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 2.19 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
54%
level
21%
Union St. Florian scores more
24%

Friedburg / Pöndorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Friedburg / Pöndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Friedburg / Pöndorf 2–2 Union St. Florian

Friedburg / Pöndorf and Union St. Florian drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg in Friedburg.