Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
FT
4 – 0
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
9/21/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 8Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf60%
×Draw20%
Union Rohrbach Berg20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.16
Union Rohrbach Berg
1.16

Friedburg / Pöndorf creates 86% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.19
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.58
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedburg / Pöndorf ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Friedburg / Pöndorf or draw
80%
Friedburg / Pöndorf or Union Rohrbach Berg
80%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
40%

Winning margin

Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
37%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
88%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
63%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
36%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
69%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
32%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
75%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedburg / Pöndorf at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 2.19 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.16

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
60%
level
20%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
20%

Friedburg / Pöndorf at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Friedburg / Pöndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Friedburg / Pöndorf 4–0 Union Rohrbach Berg

Friedburg / Pöndorf beat Union Rohrbach Berg 4-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg in Friedburg.