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Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Oedt — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
FT
1 – 3
Oedt
Oedt
3/23/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 19Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf37%
×Draw22%
Oedt41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.75
Oedt
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 73 away

creates per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.19
Oedt
2.10

allows per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.58
Oedt
1.30

finishing

Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par
Oedt+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedburg / Pöndorf ↓

Oedt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Friedburg / Pöndorf or draw
59%
Friedburg / Pöndorf or Oedt
78%
Draw or Oedt
63%

Winning margin

Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
19%
Oedt wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
83%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
52%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
25%
Oedt 1+ goals
84%
Oedt 2+ goals
55%
Oedt 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
48%
Oedt (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedburg / Pöndorf at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

Oedt away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.30 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 2.19 + Oedt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.75

Oedt attack 2.10 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
37%
level
22%
Oedt scores more
41%

Oedt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Oedt

Oedt beat Friedburg / Pöndorf 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg in Friedburg.