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Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Gmunden — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
FT
4 – 1
Gmunden
Gmunden
8/2/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 1Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf57%
×Draw19%
Gmunden24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.40
Gmunden
1.52

Friedburg / Pöndorf creates 58% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.19
Gmunden
1.47

allows per match

Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.58
Gmunden
2.60

finishing

Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par
Gmunden+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedburg / Pöndorf ↓

Gmunden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Friedburg / Pöndorf or draw
76%
Friedburg / Pöndorf or Gmunden
81%
Draw or Gmunden
43%

Winning margin

Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
36%
Gmunden wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
91%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
69%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
42%
Gmunden 1+ goals
78%
Gmunden 2+ goals
45%
Gmunden 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
70%
Gmunden (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedburg / Pöndorf at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

Gmunden away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 2.19 + Gmunden defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.40

Gmunden attack 1.47 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
57%
level
19%
Gmunden scores more
24%

Friedburg / Pöndorf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Friedburg / Pöndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Gmunden

Friedburg / Pöndorf beat Gmunden 4-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Cafe+Co Arena Friedburg in Friedburg.