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Friedberg vs Weidenhausen — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Friedberg
Friedberg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Weidenhausen
Weidenhausen
3/21/2026Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 24Rasenplatz Friedberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Friedberg59%
×Draw19%
Weidenhausen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedberg
2.48
Weidenhausen
1.48

Friedberg creates 68% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 71 away

creates per match

Friedberg
2.46
Weidenhausen
1.45

allows per match

Friedberg
1.52
Weidenhausen
2.49

finishing

Friedberg+0.00on par
Weidenhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedberg ↓

Weidenhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Friedberg or draw
78%
Friedberg or Weidenhausen
81%
Draw or Weidenhausen
41%

Winning margin

Friedberg wins by 2+
38%
Weidenhausen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Friedberg 1+ goals
92%
Friedberg 2+ goals
70%
Friedberg 3+ goals
44%
Weidenhausen 1+ goals
77%
Weidenhausen 2+ goals
43%
Weidenhausen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Friedberg (draw refunded)
73%
Weidenhausen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedberg at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.52 · 93 matches

Weidenhausen away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.49 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedberg attack 2.46 + Weidenhausen defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.48

Weidenhausen attack 1.45 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Friedberg scores more
59%
level
19%
Weidenhausen scores more
22%

Friedberg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Friedberg 3–0 Weidenhausen

Friedberg beat Weidenhausen 3-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Friedberg in Friedberg (Hessen).