Leyton Orient 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

10/18/2014

League One · Round 13Matchroom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Leyton Orient45%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

Leyton Orient

1.46

Milton Keynes Dons

1.11

Leyton Orient creates 32% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

1.37

creates per match

1.18

1.04

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.37

Milton Keynes Dons

1.18

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.04

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

71%

Leyton Orient or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

22%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

77%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

43%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

18%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

67%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

30%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.37 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.18 + Leyton Orient defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

29%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

C. Dagnall← S. Batt

71'

C. Baker← M. Randall

77'

W. Grigg← B. Reeves

81'

S. Carruthers← D. Powell

Leyton

Milton

1

5

3

12

10

▼

Reeves

15

▼

6

14

9

17

▼

23

33

5

15

6

12

4

18

26

24

14

▼

Batt

27

Simpson

58'▲C. Dagnall←▼S. Batt

Leyton Orient substitutes

23Dagnall2Omozusi16Lee19Kashket20Bartley21Grainger25Ling

71'▲C. Baker←▼M. Randall

77'▲W. Grigg←▼B. Reeves

81'▲S. Carruthers←▼D. Powell

Milton Keynes Dons substitutes

13Baker11Grigg22Carruthers4Flanagan16McLoughlin19Hitchcock