Freyming 0–3 Chantilly: Result & Stats

Freyming

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Chantilly

12/20/2025

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade du Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Freyming9%

×Draw20%

Chantilly71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreymingExpected goals in this matchChantilly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

1.92

Freyming

0.50

Chantilly

1.92

Chantilly creates 284% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.33

creates per match

1.50

2.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Freyming

0.33

Chantilly

1.50

allows per match

Freyming

2.33

Chantilly

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freyming+0.00on par

Chantilly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freyming ↓

Chantilly →

0–09%

0–117%

0–216%

0–311%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Freyming or draw

29%

Freyming or Chantilly

80%

Draw or Chantilly

91%

Winning margin

Freyming wins by 2+

Chantilly wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Freyming 1+ goals

39%

Freyming 2+ goals

Freyming 3+ goals

Chantilly 1+ goals

85%

Chantilly 2+ goals

57%

Chantilly 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Freyming (draw refunded)

11%

Chantilly (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Freyming at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Chantilly away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Freyming attack 0.33 + Chantilly defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Chantilly attack 1.50 + Freyming defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Freyming scores more

level

20%

Chantilly scores more

71%

Chantilly at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Chantilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff