Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aarhus Fremad II vs Skanderborg — League #126 2026

Aarhus Fremad II
Aarhus Fremad II
FT
2 – 5
Skanderborg
Skanderborg
8/19/2015League #126League #126 · Round 2Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aarhus Fremad II20%
×Draw18%
Skanderborg62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad II
1.38
Skanderborg
2.54

Skanderborg creates 84% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad II
1.75
Skanderborg
3.20

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad II
1.88
Skanderborg
1.00

finishing

Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par
Skanderborg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad II ↓

Skanderborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad II or draw
38%
Aarhus Fremad II or Skanderborg
82%
Draw or Skanderborg
80%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+
8%
Skanderborg wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals
75%
Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals
40%
Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals
16%
Skanderborg 1+ goals
92%
Skanderborg 2+ goals
72%
Skanderborg 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)
24%
Skanderborg (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Skanderborg away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad II attack 1.75 + Skanderborg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Skanderborg attack 3.20 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Aarhus Fremad II scores more
20%
level
18%
Skanderborg scores more
62%

Skanderborg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Skanderborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus Fremad II vs Skanderborg

Skanderborg beat Aarhus Fremad II 5-2 in League #126 on August 19, 2015.

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.