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Fresno FC vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Fresno FC
Fresno FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
6/18/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 25Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC57%
×Draw21%
Sporting KC II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fresno FC
2.02
Sporting KC II
1.15

Fresno FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 66 away

creates per match

Fresno FC
1.86
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Fresno FC
1.11
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw
79%
Fresno FC or Sporting KC II
79%
Draw or Sporting KC II
43%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+
34%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals
87%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
60%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
33%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
68%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
32%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)
73%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fresno FC scores more
57%
level
21%
Sporting KC II scores more
21%

Fresno FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fresno FC 4 – 1 Sporting KC II

Fresno FC beat Sporting KC II 4-1 in USL Championship on June 18, 2018.

The match was played at Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California).