Fresno FC vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
Fresno FC53%
Saint Louis23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fresno FC creates 66% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 43 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fresno FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches
Saint Louis away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Saint Louis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.71
Saint Louis attack 0.95 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Fresno FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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New York RB II
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Ottawa Fury
Charleston Battery
Birmingham LegionSaint Louis
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Charlotte Independence
Atlanta United II
Memphis 901
Bethlehem Steel
Hartford Athletic
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Phoenix Rising
Reno 1868Fresno FC
Real Monarchs
Orange County SC
El Paso Locomotive
Sacramento Republic
Austin Bold
LA Galaxy II
New Mexico United
San Antonio
Rio Grande Valley
Las Vegas Lights
Portland Timbers II
OKC Energy
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tacoma Defiance
Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fresno FC host Saint Louis on Sunday, 19 August 2018 at 02:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
USL Championship: Fresno FC 1–0 Saint Louis
Fresno FC beat Saint Louis 1-0 in USL Championship on August 19, 2018.
Goals: Z. Ellis-Hayden (33').
The match was played at Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California).