Fresno FC 1–1 Real Monarchs: Result & Stats

Fresno FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Monarchs

8/17/2019

USL Championship · Round 42Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC54%

×Draw23%

Real Monarchs23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fresno FCExpected goals in this matchReal Monarchs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.12

Fresno FC

1.83

Real Monarchs

1.12

Fresno FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 57 away

1.86

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Fresno FC

1.86

Real Monarchs

1.12

allows per match

Fresno FC

1.11

Real Monarchs

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Real Monarchs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw

77%

Fresno FC or Real Monarchs

77%

Draw or Real Monarchs

46%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+

30%

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals

84%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

54%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

28%

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

67%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

31%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

70%

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fresno FC scores more

54%

level

23%

Real Monarchs scores more

23%

Fresno FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff