Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fresno FC vs El Paso Locomotive — USL Championship 2018

Fresno FC
Fresno FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotiveadvanced
10/27/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Conference - Quarter-finalsChukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC48%
×Draw25%
El Paso Locomotive27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fresno FC
1.61
El Paso Locomotive
1.13

Fresno FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 115 away

creates per match

Fresno FC
1.86
El Paso Locomotive
1.14

allows per match

Fresno FC
1.11
El Paso Locomotive
1.36

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par
El Paso Locomotive+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

El Paso Locomotive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw
73%
Fresno FC or El Paso Locomotive
75%
Draw or El Paso Locomotive
52%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+
25%
El Paso Locomotive wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals
80%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
48%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
22%
El Paso Locomotive 1+ goals
68%
El Paso Locomotive 2+ goals
31%
El Paso Locomotive 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)
64%
El Paso Locomotive (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.61

El Paso Locomotive attack 1.14 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fresno FC scores more
48%
level
25%
El Paso Locomotive scores more
27%

Fresno FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Fresno FC 2–3 El Paso Locomotive

El Paso Locomotive beat Fresno FC 3-2 in USL Championship on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California).