Fresno FC 1–0 Austin Bold: Result & Stats

Fresno FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Austin Bold

Q. Lawal 84'

5/23/2019

USL Championship · Round 20Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC54%

×Draw23%

Austin Bold23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fresno FCExpected goals in this matchAustin Bold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.10

Fresno FC

1.82

Austin Bold

1.10

Fresno FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 41 away

1.86

creates per match

1.10

1.11

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Fresno FC

1.86

Austin Bold

1.10

allows per match

Fresno FC

1.11

Austin Bold

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Austin Bold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw

77%

Fresno FC or Austin Bold

77%

Draw or Austin Bold

46%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+

31%

Austin Bold wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals

84%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

54%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

27%

Austin Bold 1+ goals

67%

Austin Bold 2+ goals

30%

Austin Bold 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

70%

Austin Bold (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.82

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fresno FC scores more

54%

level

23%

Austin Bold scores more

23%

Fresno FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

V. Saramutin← D. Phillips

31'

J. Chávez← C. Chaney

39'

D. Casillas← Jackson Gonçalves

68'

J. Caffa← S. Moses

70'

I. Promise← K. Tyrpak

83'

S. Guadarrama← André Lima

84'

Q. Lawal↳ D. Casillas

Fresno

Austin

24

4

17

8

12

▼

Phillips

15

Okugo

6

Mallace

99

▼

Lima

9

Kléber

2

Troncoso

19

▼

1

5

4

2

26

▼

3

17

15

7

▼

Gonçalves

20

⚽

Lawal

21

▼

Chaney

Manager: A. Smith

31'▲J. Chávez←▼C. Chaney

39'▲D. Casillas←▼Jackson Gonçalves

68'▲J. Caffa←▼S. Moses

Fresno FC substitutes

9Chávez22Casillas10Caffa11Johnson13Alihodzic14Geffrard28Howard

Manager: Marcelo Serrano

28'▲V. Saramutin←▼D. Phillips

70'▲I. Promise←▼K. Tyrpak

83'▲S. Guadarrama←▼André Lima

Austin Bold substitutes

27Saramutin11Promise33Guadarrama1Ramírez18Garcia22Adams