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Fremantle City vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia NPL 2019

Fremantle City
Fremantle Cityadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
9/23/2023Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · FinalState Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Fremantle City42%
×Draw24%
ECU Joondalup35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremantle City
1.66
ECU Joondalup
1.50

Fremantle City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fremantle City
1.95
ECU Joondalup
1.33

allows per match

Fremantle City
1.68
ECU Joondalup
1.36

finishing

Fremantle City+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremantle City ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fremantle City or draw
65%
Fremantle City or ECU Joondalup
76%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
58%

Winning margin

Fremantle City wins by 2+
21%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fremantle City 1+ goals
81%
Fremantle City 2+ goals
49%
Fremantle City 3+ goals
23%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
78%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
44%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fremantle City (draw refunded)
54%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremantle City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremantle City attack 1.95 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

ECU Joondalup attack 1.33 + Fremantle City defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fremantle City scores more
42%
level
24%
ECU Joondalup scores more
35%

Fremantle City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fremantle City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fremantle City vs ECU Joondalup

Fremantle City beat ECU Joondalup 3-1 in Western Australia NPL on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at State Football Centre in Perth.