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Fremad Amager vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
Preview
17:00
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
10/16/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12
Big match
53%
Fremad Amager
model favours
53%24%23%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fremad Amager53%
×Draw24%
Nykobing FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.74
Nykobing FC
1.05

Fremad Amager creates 66% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.31
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Fremad Amager
0.98
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
77%
Fremad Amager or Nykobing FC
76%
Draw or Nykobing FC
47%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
29%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
82%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
52%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
25%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
65%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
28%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
70%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.74

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
53%
level
24%
Nykobing FC scores more
23%

Fremad Amager at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fremad Amager score first in only 10% of matches
  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fremad Amager have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Amager
DLWL
FC
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fremad Amager face Nykobing FC (2nd Division - Group 1)

2nd Division - Group 1 returns with Fremad Amager hosting Nykobing FC. Match starts October 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.