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Fremad Amager vs Middelfart — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
Preview
14:00
Middelfart
Middelfart
10/31/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14
Big match
39%
Fremad Amager
model favours
39%27%33%

Fremad Amager score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fremad Amager39%
×Draw27%
Middelfart33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.28
Middelfart
1.15

Fremad Amager creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 56 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.31
Middelfart
1.32

allows per match

Fremad Amager
0.98
Middelfart
1.25

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
67%
Fremad Amager or Middelfart
73%
Draw or Middelfart
61%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
18%
Middelfart wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
72%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
37%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
14%
Middelfart 1+ goals
68%
Middelfart 2+ goals
32%
Middelfart 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
54%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Middelfart away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + Middelfart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Middelfart attack 1.32 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
39%
level
27%
Middelfart scores more
33%

Fremad Amager at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Middelfart have won 5 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Amager
DLWL
Middelfart
LLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fremad Amager vs Middelfart — Match Preview

Fremad Amager face Middelfart on October 31, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.