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Fremad Amager vs Frem — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
CANC
09:00
Frem
Frem
7/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fremad Amager40%
×Draw24%
Frem36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.60
Frem
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.50
Frem
2.00

allows per match

Fremad Amager
1.00
Frem
1.71

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Frem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
64%
Fremad Amager or Frem
76%
Draw or Frem
60%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
20%
Frem wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
80%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
47%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
22%
Frem 1+ goals
78%
Frem 2+ goals
44%
Frem 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
53%
Frem (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Frem away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.50 + Frem defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Frem attack 2.00 + Fremad Amager defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
40%
level
24%
Frem scores more
36%

Fremad Amager at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fremad Amager face Frem (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Fremad Amager hosting Frem. Match starts July 20, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fremad Amager host Frem at Sundby Idrætspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.