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Fremad Amager vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
E. Egerton 83'
4/26/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 2Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fremad Amager35%
×Draw27%
Aarhus Fremad38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.23
Aarhus Fremad
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 81 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.31
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

Fremad Amager
0.98
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
62%
Fremad Amager or Aarhus Fremad
73%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
65%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
15%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
71%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
35%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
13%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
73%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
37%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
48%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
35%
level
27%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
38%

Aarhus Fremad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Mortensen
58'
A. Pisani
59'
T. Mikkelsen← J. Beluli
62'
C. Boateng← E. Zeqiri
65'
O. Hjaltason← O. Hjaltason
65'
K. Lunding← S. Baekgard
76'
K. Zohore← K. Tosse
79'
O. Andreasen← O. Andreasen
79'
S. Denius← S. Denius
83'
E. Egerton
89'
J. Simonsen← A. Petraeus
89'
M. Langberg← O. Dupont
90+3'
K. Kiilerich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Fremad Amager 0–1 Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat Fremad Amager 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 26, 2025.

Goals: E. Egerton (83').

The match was played at Sundby Idrætspark in København.