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Frem vs VSK Århus — 3. Division 2021

Frem
Frem
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
S. Drammeh 89', 70' (pen)
4/6/20243. Division3. Division · Round 22Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Frem44%
×Draw24%
VSK Århus32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.63
VSK Århus
1.34

Frem creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

creates per match

Frem
1.90
VSK Århus
1.50

allows per match

Frem
1.19
VSK Århus
1.36

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Frem or draw
68%
Frem or VSK Århus
76%
Draw or VSK Århus
56%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
23%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
80%
Frem 2+ goals
48%
Frem 3+ goals
22%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
74%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
39%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
58%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.90 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.63

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + Frem defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Frem scores more
44%
level
24%
VSK Århus scores more
32%

Frem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
S. DrammehPenalty
89'
S. Drammeh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: Frem 2–0 VSK Århus

Frem beat VSK Århus 2-0 in 3. Division on April 6, 2024.

Goals: S. Drammeh (70' pen, 89').

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.