Frem 8–2 Tårnby FF: Result & Stats

Frem

8 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Tårnby FF

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Frem51%

×Draw20%

Tårnby FF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FremExpected goals in this matchTårnby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.72

Frem

2.29

Tårnby FF

1.72

Frem creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.90

creates per match

1.83

1.60

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Frem

1.90

Tårnby FF

1.83

allows per match

Frem

1.60

Tårnby FF

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frem+0.00on par

Tårnby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Tårnby FF →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Frem or draw

71%

Frem or Tårnby FF

80%

Draw or Tårnby FF

49%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+

30%

Tårnby FF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals

90%

Frem 2+ goals

66%

Frem 3+ goals

40%

Tårnby FF 1+ goals

82%

Tårnby FF 2+ goals

51%

Tårnby FF 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)

63%

Tårnby FF (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Tårnby FF away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.90 + Tårnby FF defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Tårnby FF attack 1.83 + Frem defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frem scores more

51%

level

20%

Tårnby FF scores more

29%

Frem at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff