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Frem vs Sydvest — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Frem
Frem
FT
1 – 0
Sydvest
Sydvest
A. Smed 22'
5/8/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Frem48%
×Draw24%
Sydvest28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.67
Sydvest
1.23

Frem creates 36% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 20 away

creates per match

Frem
1.40
Sydvest
1.20

allows per match

Frem
1.26
Sydvest
1.95

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
Sydvest+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Sydvest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Frem or draw
72%
Frem or Sydvest
76%
Draw or Sydvest
52%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
25%
Sydvest wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
81%
Frem 2+ goals
50%
Frem 3+ goals
23%
Sydvest 1+ goals
71%
Sydvest 2+ goals
35%
Sydvest 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
63%
Sydvest (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Sydvest away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + Sydvest defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sydvest attack 1.20 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Frem scores more
48%
level
24%
Sydvest scores more
28%

Frem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Smed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frem 1 – 0 Sydvest

Frem beat Sydvest 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 8, 2021.

Goals: A. Smed (22').

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.