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Frem vs SfB-Oure — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Frem
Frem
FT
3 – 2
SfB-Oure
SfB-Oure
4/10/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frem53%
×Draw23%
SfB-Oure24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.88
SfB-Oure
1.20

Frem creates 57% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frem
1.37
SfB-Oure
1.15

allows per match

Frem
1.25
SfB-Oure
2.38

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
SfB-Oure+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

SfB-Oure →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Frem or draw
76%
Frem or SfB-Oure
77%
Draw or SfB-Oure
47%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
30%
SfB-Oure wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
85%
Frem 2+ goals
56%
Frem 3+ goals
29%
SfB-Oure 1+ goals
70%
SfB-Oure 2+ goals
34%
SfB-Oure 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
69%
SfB-Oure (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.25 · 52 matches

SfB-Oure away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.37 + SfB-Oure defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

SfB-Oure attack 1.15 + Frem defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Frem scores more
53%
level
23%
SfB-Oure scores more
24%

Frem at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frem vs SfB-Oure

Frem beat SfB-Oure 3-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.